No More Mr. Nice Empire

No More Mr. Nice Empire

by Steven Orlowski, CFP®

As a Certified Financial Planner, I’m trained to analyze trends, assess risk, and help people plan for the future. Lately, I’ve noticed a lot of noise — especially on social media — surrounding the latest round of tariffs. Much of it is emotional: fear, outrage, confusion. But strip away the heat, and you’ll see something more important at work.

We’re witnessing a paradigm shift.

Now, let me be clear: I’m a free-market guy. Tariffs aren’t my go-to tool. They distort pricing, create inefficiencies, and often spark retaliation. But sometimes, in both life and economics, you have to play the hand you’re dealt. And right now, the United States is holding fewer aces than it used to. Tariffs, like them or not, are one of the few levers left on the table.

So, what changed? To understand that, we need to zoom out. Way out.

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From Berlin to Beijing: The End of an Era

The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 wasn’t just a geopolitical event. It ushered in a 35-year era of American dominance — a unipolar world where the U.S. was the economic, military, and technological center of gravity. We called it “globalization,” but in practice, it meant the U.S. opened its markets, guaranteed global security, and often picked up the check.

For a while, it worked. Markets boomed. Trade soared. Investors — myself included — saw the benefits in our portfolios.

But that era quietly ended when Trump won re-election in 2024. His return wasn’t just a political statement — it marked the formal end of post-Cold War idealism. We’ve moved from “leader of the free world” to “strategic competitor.” That’s not a downgrade. It’s a necessary recalibration.

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A Market Analyst’s View of the Last 35 Years

The 1990s were a bull market for optimism. With the Cold War over and globalization ramping up, the U.S. saw explosive growth. Alan Greenspan could move markets with a sentence. Tech was booming. Trade deals were abundant. And for a while, it looked like Francis Fukuyama’s “End of History” thesis might be right.

But investors know better than to trust narratives. By the early 2000s, cracks began to show. The tech bubble burst. 9/11 shocked the system. Real estate bubbled. Then popped. The 2008 financial crisis didn’t just cost trillions — it exposed the structural imbalances we’d ignored.

Quantitative easing saved the markets, but it inflated asset prices and kicked the can down the road. Meanwhile, China — once a junior partner — became a full-blown rival. Russia drifted back into adversary status. Europe, once a model of stability, struggled with debt and demographics.

And through it all, we kept printing money, outsourcing labor, and accumulating debt.

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From Strategy to Survival: Why Tariffs Make (Some) Sense Now

Today, America faces a $36 trillion debt load, declining global trust in its currency, and rising geopolitical threats. And so, the U.S. is turning inward — not to isolate, but to prioritize. Tariffs are one manifestation of that shift. They’re not about punishing friends or foes. They’re about buying time. Time to rebuild domestic industry. Time to reconfigure supply chains. Time to invest in national resilience.

Markets are already adjusting. Gold is trading above $3,000/oz — a clear sign investors are hedging against dollar devaluation and geopolitical instability. BRICS nations are diversifying away from U.S. Treasuries. And in this uncertain environment, owning hard assets, reducing exposure to global volatility, and focusing on fundamentals is not just smart — it’s essential.

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A CFP’s Takeaway: Planning in an Era of Strategic Realignment

This isn’t about left vs. right. It’s about reality vs. wishful thinking. America’s days of underwriting global stability for free are over. And from a financial planning perspective, that’s a big deal.

If you’re an investor, a business owner, or even just trying to save for retirement, this new era demands a new mindset:

• Diversify intelligently — the old 60/40 portfolio might not cut it.

• Think long-term — volatility isn’t going away.

• Get real about inflation — it’s stickier than we thought.

• Watch geopolitical risk — it matters more than ever.

Whether or not you like Trump isn’t the point. What matters is that the U.S. is finally playing a more strategic game. Less generosity. More leverage.

It’s not isolationism. It’s prioritization. And if you want to thrive in this environment, you need to plan accordingly.

Because the old game is over.

And in this new one, we’re finally playing to win.

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Steven Orlowski, CFP® is a financial advisor who helps clients make sense of markets, money, and the shifting global landscape. When he’s not talking strategy, he’s probably watching gold charts or reading 10-Ks for fun.