Gold To Top Bitcoin And Silver On Way To $4K Per Oz, Says Goldman Sachs

May 25, 2025 | By Steven Orlowski, CFP, CNPR

In a bold new forecast that has caught the attention of global investors, Goldman Sachs has reiterated its bullish stance on gold, projecting the precious metal could reach as high as $4,000 per ounce in the coming years—surpassing the returns of both Bitcoin and silver.

The Wall Street banking giant cites a “perfect storm” of macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions driving renewed interest in gold as a haven asset, with demand outpacing supply amid global uncertainties.

Why Gold Is Back in the Spotlight

According to a recent report issued by Goldman Sachs’ commodities research division, gold is positioned to outperform competing asset classes, including cryptocurrencies and industrial metals, due to three key drivers:

1. Central Bank Accumulation
   Central banks—especially in emerging markets—have accelerated their gold purchases, aiming to de-dollarize reserves in response to rising geopolitical tensions. In 2024, central banks bought more gold than in any year since records began, and that trend has continued into early 2025.

2. Stubborn Inflation and Monetary Policy Shifts
   While inflation has moderated from its 2022-2023 peaks, it remains above central bank targets. With real yields plateauing and the Federal Reserve signaling an end to aggressive rate hikes, the opportunity cost of holding gold has decreased, making it more attractive as a store of value.

3. Weakening Dollar Outlook
   Goldman’s strategists believe the U.S. dollar may enter a long-term weakening cycle as trade imbalances, growing fiscal deficits, and shifting global alliances undermine confidence in dollar-denominated assets.

Bitcoin, Silver Lag Behind

The bank’s analysts note that while Bitcoin has enjoyed a resurgence—hovering near the $60,000 level in early 2025—it still carries high volatility and regulatory overhangs, particularly in the U.S. and EU. Though increasingly accepted as a speculative hedge, Bitcoin lacks the centuries-old trust and utility of physical gold.

Meanwhile, silver, often seen as “gold’s little brother,” has underperformed relative to gold despite growing demand from the green energy and electronics sectors. Analysts say silver remains tethered to industrial cycles and is more vulnerable to economic slowdowns.

Gold to $4,000: A Realistic Projection?

Goldman Sachs’ $4,000 per ounce target—nearly double the current price of around $2,050—is based on a combination of historical valuation models, currency debasement risks, and structural changes in global capital flows.

Jeff Currie, former global head of commodities research at Goldman and a long-time bull on gold, emphasized in a recent interview that “the market is underestimating the longevity of inflationary pressures and the geopolitical realignment taking place. Gold remains the ultimate hedge, and we believe the market is on the cusp of a significant repricing.”

Investor Implications

If gold were to approach $4,000/oz, it would signal a major capital rotation toward tangible, defensive assets. Portfolio managers, retail investors, and sovereign wealth funds could increase allocations to gold ETFs, mining stocks, and physical bullion.

Some are already moving in that direction. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has seen a 15% increase in inflows since January, and leading mining companies are reporting record margins and exploration budgets.

Final Thoughts

While market predictions are always subject to uncertainty, Goldman Sachs’ call underscores a growing consensus: gold is once again asserting itself as a critical asset in a world marked by volatility, inflation, and global power shifts.

Whether or not the $4,000 target is hit, the message is clear—gold is not just glittering, it’s surging.